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eyelessgameLooks like for once California really does get what it wants -- a meaningful voice in the presidential primaries. This is going to be the make-or-break state for both the underdogs. For Romney and Obama, if they don't win California they're done; if they win California, they can keep going (assuming reasonable support elsewhere).
Of course it's still two weeks away. Obama has to win South Carolina (and it looks like he will). McCain meanwhile is going to get a lot stronger because he's probably going to win Florida -- if Romney can pull that off he gets a big boost.
Though Obama's got the problem that he has to stay competitive everywhere. R primaries are winner-take-all; D primaries are proportional-rep. If Romney squeaks out wins in a dozen big or medium states, he can deny McCain the delegate majority, while losing the medium states in a blowout would crush Obama. Winner-take-all does magnify "momentum", but note that the beauty-contest popular vote wins are what the press spends most of its time talking about. Clinton has won more primaries; Obama has more delegates; yet Clinton is considered the frontrunner. Since the press treats the Democratic primaries as though they were winner-take-all, they are effectively winner-take-all as far as momentum is concerned.
TPM claims the polls don't show any greater dislike for McCain among Republican primary voters than for any other candidate, which probably means the hoped-for backlash, should he get the nomination, is a mirage. Still, he has yet to receive the plurality of Republicans in any primary; the only ones he's won have been open primaries, where independents could cross over, and in each case without the independents he would have lost. California's Republican primary is closed; maybe his momentum doesn't have the legs all the press clearly hopes it does.
But probably not. I think I have a solution to one thing that's confusing a lot of prominent Left Blogistan writers...mentioned in the TPM link above: Rush Limbaugh and other prominent righties are blathering about how unacceptable McCain is to conservatives.
My theory: he's being bitch-slapped. They're using their faux protests of "unacceptable" to try to force him to commit to more conservative positions during the primary. Once he's the nominee, whether he's done a lot or a little to pacify the movement (he must do something, not nothing, but it need not be much) I lay odds that the "New McCain" will be discovered to be acceptable to Limbaugh and his shambling hordes, and these unseemly violations of the 11th Commandment will cease.
Now for the really, really depressing prediction. AFAICT, It's going to be Clinton v McCain. I don't think underdogs win anymore. I can root for Obama all I want, but I'm only one vote, in the greater scheme of things.
And if it's Clinton v McCain, it'll be President McCain. Not for the reasons anybody thinks. I don't think Clinton's "negatives" mean jack: their propaganda machine can turn honest men into liars and war heroes into cowards; any Democrat will have high negatives by the general election. I don't think the intensity of hatred among the dittoheads has anything to do with it; they're all going to vote for the Republican anyway; it's not like they'll set the polling places on fire by voting harder. Nor do I think the dislike for her among the lefty netroots means much -- I think (hope!) that the Nader Lesson still means something, and however much they hold their noses, they'll still vote for her.
No, I think McCain wins for the decisive reason that the press corps adores him and hates her, and every "independent" (read: ignoramus who pays very little attention and decides at the last minute) will spend eight months reading press coverage that carefully slants to say that he's a god and she's a harpy.
Which is the big reason why, looking at Clinton and Obama -- neither perfect, both perfectly acceptable -- I very much want Obama to win the primary.
but he won't.
But hey, at least my state will count. And if we do swing to Obama, we might keep him alive past Feb 5. Like Bruce Willis in Die Hard 2, going out into the ice to wave torches despite knowing it's futile: if we can't do anything, still we do whatever we can.
Of course it's still two weeks away. Obama has to win South Carolina (and it looks like he will). McCain meanwhile is going to get a lot stronger because he's probably going to win Florida -- if Romney can pull that off he gets a big boost.
Though Obama's got the problem that he has to stay competitive everywhere. R primaries are winner-take-all; D primaries are proportional-rep. If Romney squeaks out wins in a dozen big or medium states, he can deny McCain the delegate majority, while losing the medium states in a blowout would crush Obama. Winner-take-all does magnify "momentum", but note that the beauty-contest popular vote wins are what the press spends most of its time talking about. Clinton has won more primaries; Obama has more delegates; yet Clinton is considered the frontrunner. Since the press treats the Democratic primaries as though they were winner-take-all, they are effectively winner-take-all as far as momentum is concerned.
TPM claims the polls don't show any greater dislike for McCain among Republican primary voters than for any other candidate, which probably means the hoped-for backlash, should he get the nomination, is a mirage. Still, he has yet to receive the plurality of Republicans in any primary; the only ones he's won have been open primaries, where independents could cross over, and in each case without the independents he would have lost. California's Republican primary is closed; maybe his momentum doesn't have the legs all the press clearly hopes it does.
But probably not. I think I have a solution to one thing that's confusing a lot of prominent Left Blogistan writers...mentioned in the TPM link above: Rush Limbaugh and other prominent righties are blathering about how unacceptable McCain is to conservatives.
My theory: he's being bitch-slapped. They're using their faux protests of "unacceptable" to try to force him to commit to more conservative positions during the primary. Once he's the nominee, whether he's done a lot or a little to pacify the movement (he must do something, not nothing, but it need not be much) I lay odds that the "New McCain" will be discovered to be acceptable to Limbaugh and his shambling hordes, and these unseemly violations of the 11th Commandment will cease.
Now for the really, really depressing prediction. AFAICT, It's going to be Clinton v McCain. I don't think underdogs win anymore. I can root for Obama all I want, but I'm only one vote, in the greater scheme of things.
And if it's Clinton v McCain, it'll be President McCain. Not for the reasons anybody thinks. I don't think Clinton's "negatives" mean jack: their propaganda machine can turn honest men into liars and war heroes into cowards; any Democrat will have high negatives by the general election. I don't think the intensity of hatred among the dittoheads has anything to do with it; they're all going to vote for the Republican anyway; it's not like they'll set the polling places on fire by voting harder. Nor do I think the dislike for her among the lefty netroots means much -- I think (hope!) that the Nader Lesson still means something, and however much they hold their noses, they'll still vote for her.
No, I think McCain wins for the decisive reason that the press corps adores him and hates her, and every "independent" (read: ignoramus who pays very little attention and decides at the last minute) will spend eight months reading press coverage that carefully slants to say that he's a god and she's a harpy.
Which is the big reason why, looking at Clinton and Obama -- neither perfect, both perfectly acceptable -- I very much want Obama to win the primary.
but he won't.
But hey, at least my state will count. And if we do swing to Obama, we might keep him alive past Feb 5. Like Bruce Willis in Die Hard 2, going out into the ice to wave torches despite knowing it's futile: if we can't do anything, still we do whatever we can.
